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submitted by ViralMedia007 to FREECoursesEveryday [link] [comments]

35+ Free & Discounted Udemy, Eduonix , Amazon Kindle eBooks: Agile Project Management 200+ Tools with Kanban Scrum Devops, Python Programming v3.9, Python And Flask Framework Complete Course, AWS Business Essentials - The Business Value of Amazon, Legal Document Automation, Python Game Development

Agile Project Management 200+ Tools with Kanban Scrum Devops, The Python Programming v3.9 Comprehensive Bootcamp, Python And Flask Framework Complete Course, AWS Business Essentials - The Business Value of Amazon, Legal Document Automation using Documate
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Free Udemy Courses: Ethical Hacking A-Z, Python 3 Javascript, Linux, Spark & Hadoop Developer, Excel, SEO, SQL, Scrum, Agile, Youtube, Forex

The following description is not provided by this sub or any of it's contributors.
Udemy
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85+ Free Udemy Courses: Ultimate AWS Certified Alexa, Python, Lean, MySQL, Public Speaking, NodeJS, Big Data, Adobe Premiere , Excel & More

The following description is not provided by this sub or any of it's contributors.
Udemy
Mostly are 4 & more star rated courses except few. Have fun learning !!
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Free Udemy Courses: Ethical Hacking A-Z, Python 3 Javascript, Linux, Spark & Hadoop Developer, Excel, SEO, SQL, Scrum, Agile, Youtube, Forex

The following description is not provided by this sub or any of it's contributors.
Udemy
Another list of courses: Credit: Reddit
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List of 70+ Udemy and Some Best Discounted

List of 70 plus Udemy and Some Best Discounted ( Code Valid from few hours to upto 2 days )
  1. [English] 0h 49m Media Training -Radio: How to Speak Effectively on the Radio https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-speak-on-radio/?couponCode=455D2FA6B100BA01CD9D 2 Days left at this price!
  2. [English] 1h 36m Charisma: You Can Develop Charisma https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-develop-charisma/?couponCode=6BDAE9933FB569BED8C1 2 Days left at this price!
  3. [English] 0h 53m Personal Communication-Introduce Yourself With Confidence https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-introduce-yourself/?couponCode=C1DA326C0525CE2CE591 2 Days left at this price!
  4. [English] 29h 12m Leadership: You Can Speak Like a Leader https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-speak-like-a-leade?couponCode=64F401DDD08142A231B9 2 Days left at this price!
  5. [English] 1h 34m Public Speaking Skills: Give a Great Informational Speech https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-give-an-informational-speech/?couponCode=A2DBDF7C2F45ACDD316D 2 Days left at this price!
  6. [English] 0h 59m Sales Skills Training: Free Sales Generation Seminars https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-deliver-a-free-sales-generation-semina?couponCode=47D73D11D2A7EC7D6FBC 2 Days left at this price!
  7. [English] 0h 53m Public Relations: Speak Effectively at Press Conferences https://www.udemy.com/course/how-to-speak-at-a-press-conference/?couponCode=1EEA0257E6A81D7A3FBA 2 Days left at this price!
  8. [English] 1h 56m Complete Management Coaching Course - Executive Coaching https://www.udemy.com/course/complete-management-coaching-course-executive-coaching/?couponCode=D8B3ADC8240A82506319 2 Days left at this price!
  9. [English] 5h 46m Become a Successful Online Teacher - Teach Online Students https://www.udemy.com/course/complete-udemy-bestsellers-online-course-creation-unofficial/?couponCode=3CD9C87E21C76A849072 2 Days left at this price!
  10. [Turkish] 5h 5m Oğuz Hoca'yla Sorunsuz Matematik-3 (TYT, KPSS, DGS, ALES) https://www.udemy.com/course/oguz-hocayla-sorunsuz-matematik-3-tyt-kpss-dgs-ales/?couponCode=OGUZHOCAPROBLEMLER 1 Day left at this price!
  11. [English] 2h 49m Learn HTML- Beginner to Advanced https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-html-beginner-to-advanced/?couponCode=462B17B62209CD079DB1 2 Days left at this price!
  12. [English] 1h 18m How to Earn from Photography: Absolute Beginners Guide https://www.udemy.com/course/earn-from-photography-complete-guideline/?couponCode=EARNPOCT2020F2 2 Days left at this price!
  13. [English] 6h 3m The Complete Android Ethical Hacking Practical Course C|AEHP https://freebiesglobal.com/the-complete-android-ethical-hacking-practical-course-caehp-5 2 Days left at this price!
  14. [English] 8h 49m TCP/IP Socket Programming HandsOn-Windows & Linux in C & C++ https://www.udemy.com/course/tcpip-socket-programming-handson-windows-linux-in-c-c/?couponCode=SOCKET_PROG20 2 Days left at this price!
  15. [English] 20h 20m Ultimate Content Writing Masterclass: 30 Courses in 1 https://www.udemy.com/course/ultimate-content-writing-masterclass-30-courses-in-1/?couponCode=WRITING28 2 Days left at this price!
  16. [English] 7h 53m Complete Law of Attraction MasterClass - Manifest Your Goals https://www.udemy.com/course/lawofattractionmasterclass/?couponCode=LAWOFATTRACTION 2 Days left at this price!
  17. [English] 3h 23m Microsoft Power BI: Latest 2020 Beginner to Expert Modules https://www.udemy.com/course/microsoft-power-bi-latest-2020-beginner-to-expert-modules/?couponCode=POWER29 2 Days left at this price!
  18. [English] 2h 0m The Ultimate Guide to Scrum Fundamentals- 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/scrum-genman/?couponCode=GETSCRUM 2 Days left at this price!
  19. [Arabic] 6h 44m التسعير السيكولوجي https://www.udemy.com/course/pricing-psychology/?couponCode=ECCC0837587E3536A6E2 2 Days left at this price!
  20. [English] 0h 46m Mindfulness For Depression, Anxiety, PTSD, Stress Sampler https://www.udemy.com/course/mindfulness-for-depression-anxiety-ptsd-stress-sample?couponCode=7B330FB6CB29EAF8D7EC 2 Days left at this price!
  21. [Spanish] 2h 50m [2020] COBIT version 5 Fundamentos https://www.udemy.com/course/cobit-5-fundamentos/?couponCode=OCT2020 2 Days left at this price!
  22. [Spanish] 1h 10m [2020] Service Desk Fundamentos https://www.udemy.com/course/service-desk-lider-certificacion/?couponCode=OCT2020 2 Days left at this price!
  23. [Spanish] 1h 2m Mejores Prácticas de Trabajo Remoto-Remote Worker CertiProf https://www.udemy.com/course/remote-worker-trabajo-remoto/?couponCode=OCT2020 2 Days left at this price!
  24. [English] 1h 18m Make Money From Home As a Transcriptionist: 10 Opportunities https://www.udemy.com/course/work-home-transcription-jobs/?couponCode=6A392F6ABDB69E35C569 2 Days left at this price!
  25. [English] 10h 6m CATIA V5 3D Design & Modeling Course for Beginner https://www.udemy.com/course/catia-v5-3d-design-modeling-course-for-beginne?couponCode=OCTEND 17 hrs left at this price!
  26. [English] 3h 13m Affinity Publisher Guide - Affinity Publisher for Beginners https://www.udemy.com/course/affinity-publisher-guide/?couponCode=60C5AAC8301103E15A98 2 Days left at this price!
  27. [Spanish] 8h 5m Aprende cálculo integral desde cero https://www.udemy.com/course/aprende-calculo-integral-desde-cero/?couponCode=49F116345F722309DC08 2 Days left at this price!
  28. [English] 2h 31m AWS Business Essentials - The Business Value of Amazon AWS https://www.udemy.com/course/aws-business-essentials/?couponCode=AWSBUSINESS 1 Day left at this price!
  29. [English] 3h 13m PowerPoint Essentials for Business Presentations https://www.udemy.com/course/powerpoint-essentials-for-business-presentations/?couponCode=OCT2020 1 Day left at this price!
  30. [English] 56h 30m Corporate Finance https://www.udemy.com/course/corporate-finance/?couponCode=B2A8FAB800A27473FAAC 13 hrs left at this price!
  31. [English] 10h 44m QuickBooks Desktop Job Costing https://www.udemy.com/course/quickbooks-desktop-job-costing/?couponCode=8339216EE9B309F3C0A3 13 hrs left at this price!
  32. [English] 1h 24m Brain-friendly reading - Understand 300 books per year https://www.udemy.com/course/brain-friendly-reading-understand-300-books-per-yea?couponCode=STARTREADING 2 Days left at this price!
  33. [English] 2h 29m Shopify Guide: Start your own clothing brand with Shopify https://www.udemy.com/course/start-your-own-clothing-brand-with-shopify/?couponCode=F4DA690ABE790611EEFF 2 Days left at this price!
  34. [English] 2h 33m Shopify guide: The complete shopify store creation course https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-shopify-store-creation-course/?couponCode=4B1F31E169BB9AF277E8 2 Days left at this price!
  35. [English] 1h 12m Learn Google Docs https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-google-docs/?couponCode=TRY10FREE307 2 Days left at this price!
  36. [English] 2h 1m Learn Advanced HTML5 https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-html-5-course-from-scratch/?couponCode=TRY10FREE307 2 Days left at this price!
  37. [English] 0h 48m Learn Google Forms https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-google-forms/?couponCode=TRY10FREE307 2 Days left at this price!
  38. [English] 1h 53m Learn Advanced CSS3 https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-css-course/?couponCode=TRY10FREE307 2 Days left at this price!
  39. [English] 2h 15m Learn Advanced JavaScript https://www.udemy.com/course/the-learn-javascript-course/?couponCode=TRY10FREE307 2 Days left at this price!
  40. [English] 0h 32m Learn Microsoft PowerApps https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-microsoft-powerapps-/?couponCode=TRY10FREE307 2 Days left at this price!
  41. [English] 0h 44m Learn Trello https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-basic-trello/?couponCode=TRY10FREE307 2 Days left at this price!
  42. [English] 1h 50m Learn Advanced jQuery https://www.udemy.com/course/the-learn-jquery-course/?couponCode=TRY10FREE307 2 Days left at this price!
  43. [English] 0h 47m Gmail https://www.udemy.com/course/gmail-productivity/?couponCode=TRY10FREE307 2 Days left at this price!
  44. [Spanish] 1h 10m Física: Estática - Fuerzas - Equilibrio - Ejercicios https://www.udemy.com/course/fisicaestatica/?couponCode=40DA54990CA840FC16CB 1 Day left at this price!
  45. [English] 3h 33m PlayerUnknown's Battlegrounds (PUBG) For Beginner Gamers https://www.udemy.com/course/playerunknowns-battlegrounds-pubg/?couponCode=PUBGBGEXPOCT312020 2 Days left at this price!
  46. [English] 1h 29m Fast Video Ranking No Matter Your Niche With XRanker360 SEO https://www.udemy.com/course/fast-video-ranking-seo/?couponCode=FVRNMEXPOCT312020 2 Days left at this price!
  47. [Spanish] 3h 27m [2020] Scrum Master Certificación Mundial https://www.udemy.com/course/scrum-master-espanol/?couponCode=OCT2020 2 Days left at this price!
  48. [Spanish] 1h 46m Agile Coach Introducción al Rol https://www.udemy.com/course/agile-coach/?couponCode=OCT2020 2 Days left at this price!
  49. [English] 4h 2m Intuition Development for Beginners | Energy Healing & Tarot https://www.udemy.com/course/intuition-energy-healing/?couponCode=INTUITIONFREE 1 Day left at this price!
  50. [English] 2h 33m Vegan Cooking Class Vegan Thai Food Easy Vegan Recipes https://www.udemy.com/course/vegan-cooking-class-vegan-thai-food-easy-vegan-recipes/?couponCode=VEGANTHAI28102020 1 Day left at this price!
  51. [English] 0h 36m Learn Basics of Adobe Photoshop CC 2020 for Beginners https://www.udemy.com/course/learn-basics-of-adobe-photoshop-cc-for-beginners/?couponCode=2618FE9D22523F56914C 20 hrs left at this price!
  52. [English] 2h 45m Master Spring & Angular Material with a full web application https://www.udemy.com/course/master-spring-angular-material-with-a-full-web-application/?couponCode=A0BECB22BC8C8D9C98B6 1 Day left at this price!
  53. [English] 1h 46m Portrait Photography for Absolute Beginners https://www.udemy.com/course/mastering-portrait-photography/?couponCode=PORTRAITOCT2020F3 1 Day left at this price!
  54. [English] 2h 17m Complete Guide to InVideo and InVideo Video Creation https://www.udemy.com/course/complete-guide-to-invideo-and-invideo-video-creation/?couponCode=89061B53CBC29FF9F2EC 1 Day left at this price!
  55. [English] 4h 51m New Way to Make Money at No Budget! Drop Servicing WordPress https://www.udemy.com/course/create-drop-servicing-website-with-wordpress/?couponCode=FREEPROMOTION 1 Day left at this price!
  56. [English] 5h 5m Advance Maths: Part III: Statistics & Probability https://www.udemy.com/course/advanced-mathematics-part-iii-statistics-probability/?couponCode=SAM2612 15 hrs left at this price!
  57. [English] 2h 29m Advance Maths: Part II: Fourier Transform https://www.udemy.com/course/advance-course-in-mathematics-part-ii/?couponCode=SIMABHI2612 15 hrs left at this price!
  58. [English] 4h 1m Advance Maths: Part I: Linear Differential Equations https://www.udemy.com/course/advanced-course-in-mathematics-part-i/?couponCode=SEEMABHI2612 14 hrs left at this price!
  59. [English] 53h 42m Managerial Accounting / Cost Accounting https://www.udemy.com/course/managerial-accounting-cost-accounting/?couponCode=74CEB0E3645D8ED18DEA 12 hrs left at this price!
  60. [English] 118h 56m Accounting–Financial Accounting Total-Beginners to Advanced https://www.udemy.com/course/financial-accounting-accounting-cycle/?couponCode=FBA9292E89D59C671FB3 12 hrs left at this price!
  61. [English] 100h 13m QuickBooks Online 2020 Vs. QuickBooks Desktop 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/quickbooks-online-vs-quickbooks-desktop/?couponCode=8548658665DC1E3B1CB9 12 hrs left at this price!
  62. [English] 5h 32m Python Demonstrations For Practice Course https://freebiesglobal.com/python-demonstrations-for-practice-course-4 1 Day left at this price!
  63. [English] 6h 23m Learning Analytics Through R https://www.udemy.com/course/learning-analytics/?couponCode=LEARNING28 1 Day left at this price!
  64. [English] 9h 40m Tableau Training: Master Tableau For Data Science https://www.udemy.com/course/tableau-training-master-tableau-for-data-science/?couponCode=TABLEAU28 1 Day left at this price!
  65. [English] 1h 36m Computer Basics 2020:Essential Computer Skills And Knowledge https://www.udemy.com/course/computer-basics-2020-basic-computer-skills-and-fundamentals/?couponCode=DISCOUNT-100 1 Day left at this price!
  66. [English] 49h 1m The Complete 2020 PHP Full Stack Web Developer Bootcamp https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-php-full-stack-web-developer-bootcamp/?couponCode=FREEBEEOCT 1 Day left at this price!
  67. [English] 3h 50m Substance painter 2020 - The complete 3D Texturing course https://www.udemy.com/course/substance-painter-2020-the-complete-3d-texturing-course/?couponCode=FREETIME 1 Day left at this price!
  68. [Spanish] 4h 17m Excel para negocios y empresas | ACTUALIZADO 2020 https://www.udemy.com/course/excelparanegocios/?couponCode=13E45874992DC0C540CD 1 Day left at this price!
  69. [English] 3h 49m Introduction to Forex- learn to trade forex by yourself https://www.udemy.com/course/introduction-to-forex-learn-to-trade-forex-by-yourself/?couponCode=1F0D68F4944923897966 1 Day left at this price!
  70. [English] 2h 15m Business Networking for Success and Company Growth: Part Two https://www.udemy.com/course/business-networking-for-success-2/?couponCode=BNSCGEXPOCT302020 1 Day left at this price!
  71. [English] 2h 13m Business Networking for Success and Company Growth: Part One https://www.udemy.com/course/business-networking-1/?couponCode=BNSCPOEXPOCT302020 1 Day left at this price!
  72. [English] 3h 50m Substance painter 2020 - The complete 3D Texturing course https://www.udemy.com/course/substance-painter-2020-the-complete-3d-texturing-course/?couponCode=FREETIME 1 Day left at this price!
  73. [English] 1h 27m Business Networking for Success and Company Growth: Part 3 https://www.udemy.com/course/business-networking-for-success-3/?couponCode=BNSCEXPOCT302020 1 Day left at this price!
  74. [English] 1h 51m Lean Tools and Techniques for Flow and Pull https://www.udemy.com/course/lean-tools-and-techniques-for-flow-and-pull/?couponCode=B035585AB9A21B8432CE 12 hrs left at this price!
Popular courses form $9.99
  1. [English] 6h 20m Lean for Business Organizations https://www.udemy.com/course/lean-for-business-organizations/?couponCode=C5518B068F924319C5FB 12 hrs left at this price!
  2. [English] 7h 53m Introduction to Cloud Computing on Amazon AWS for Beginners $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/introduction-to-cloud-computing-on-amazon-aws-for-beginners/?couponCode=AWSOCT 2 Days left at this price!
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  4. [English] 34h 0m The Complete Train the Trainer Bootcamp - Beginners-Advanced $12.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/the-complete-train-the-trainer-bootcamp-beginners-advanced/?couponCode=THANKS1 1 Day left at this price!
  5. [English] 26h 49m Leading Effective Meetings - You Can Lead Effective Meetings $12.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/leading-effective-meetings-you-can-lead-effective-meetings/?couponCode=THANKS2 1 Day left at this price!
  6. [English] 44h 40m SEO TRAINING 2021: Complete SEO Course + WordPress SEO Yoast $10.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/online-seo-training/?couponCode=2OCT999 2 Days left at this price!
  7. [English] 8h 9m Facebook Dynamic Ads (Facebook Dynamic Retargeting) MASTERY $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/facebook-dynamic-ads/?couponCode=OCT999 2 Days left at this price!
  8. [English] 10h 39m Lead Generation MASTERY with Facebook Lead & Messenger Ads $11.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/facebook-lead-ads-course/?couponCode=OCT999 2 Days left at this price!
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  12. [English] [390 questions] AWS Certified Developer Associate Practice Exam Questions $9.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/aws-developer-associate-practice-exams/?couponCode=AWSOCT 18 hrs left at this price!
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  15. [English] 14h 45m Risk Management for Project Professionals (PMBOK6 Updated) https://www.udemy.com/course/risk-management-for-project-professionals/?couponCode=LEARN2020OCT 1 Day left at this price!
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  17. [English] 21h 6m The Agile Certified Practitioner Training Program (PMI-ACP) $12.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/the-agile-certified-practitioner-training-program-pmi-acp/?couponCode=LEARN2020OCT 2 Days left at this price!
  18. [English] 31h 16m The Agile Methodology for Project Risk Managers $12.99 https://www.udemy.com/course/the-agile-methodology-for-project-risk-managers/?couponCode=LEARN2020OCT 1 Day left at this price!
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Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II
Firstly, thanks for the overwhelming comments and feedback. Genuinely really appreciated. I am pleased 500+ of you find it useful.
If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I. You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic.
As ever please comment/reply below with questions or feedback and I'll do my best to get back to you.
Part II
  • Letting stops breathe
  • When to change a stop
  • Entering and exiting winning positions
  • Risk:reward ratios
  • Risk-adjusted returns

Letting stops breathe

We talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise.
Let’s consider the chart below and imagine you had a trailing stop. It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight.

Imagine being long and stopped out on a meaningless retracement ... ouch!
One simple technique is simply to look at your chosen chart - let’s say daily bars. And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure.
For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. That max drawdown was about 100 pips or just under 1%. So you’d want your stop to be able to withstand at least that.
If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that. If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it.
There are also more analytical approaches.
Some look at the Average True Range (ATR). This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions. It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves.
For example, below shows the daily move in EURUSD was around 60 pips before spiking to 140 pips in March. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March. Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size.

ATR is available on pretty much all charting systems
Professional traders tend to use standard deviation as a measure of volatility instead of ATR. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch (see above chart).
Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised. For example does 2x ATR work best or 5x ATR for a given style and time horizon?
Discretionary traders may still eye-ball the ATR or standard deviation to get a feeling for how it has changed over time and what ‘normal’ feels like for a chosen study period - daily, weekly, monthly etc.

Reasons to change a stop

As a general rule you should be disciplined and not change your stops. Remember - losers average losers. This is really hard at first and we’re going to look at that in more detail later.
There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare.
One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions. We’ll look at this later. In that case just close out your positions at market and take the loss/gains as they are.
Another is event risk. If you have some big upcoming data like Non Farm Payrolls that you know can move the market +/- 150 pips and you have no edge going into the release then many traders will take off or scale down their positions. They’ll go back into the positions when the data is out and the market has quietened down after fifteen minutes or so. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out.
Trailing stops can also be used to ‘lock in’ profits. We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour (say up if you are long) the stop loss ratchets with it. This means you may well end up ‘stopping out’ at a profit - as per the below example.

The mighty trailing stop loss order
It is perfectly reasonable to have your stop loss move in the direction of PNL. This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with. It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour. Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops.
One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons? Nope. Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea.
Let’s say a particular stock looked cheap based on valuation metrics yesterday, you bought, it went down and you got stopped out. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Maybe the market just doesn’t respect value at the moment and is driven by momentum. Wait it out.
Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place?

Entering and exiting winning positions

Take profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price.
Imagine I’m long EURUSD at 1.1250. If it hits a previous high of 1.1400 (150 pips higher) I will leave a sell order to take profit and close the position.
The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early. One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. Therefore you will need to ensure that you win more on the ones that work than you lose on those that don’t.

Sad to say but incredibly common: retail traders often take profits way too early
This is going to be the exact opposite of what your emotions want you to do. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter.
Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. Don’t override yourself and let emotions force you to take a small profit. A classic mistake to avoid.
The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding. As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this.

Entering positions with limit orders

That covers exiting a position but how about getting into one?
Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position. Sometimes referred to as “bids” (buy orders) or “offers” (sell orders). Imagine the price is 1.1250 and the recent low is 1.1205.
You might wish to leave a bid around 1.2010 to enter a long position, if the market reaches that price. This way you don’t need to sit at the computer and wait.
Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in.
So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1.1205 we might leave the take profit bit a little bit above there at 1.1210 to ensure it gets done. Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1.1207 and then it rallied a hundred points and you didn’t have the trade on?!
There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position.
Scaling in is one such technique. Let’s imagine that you think we are in a long-term bulltrend for AUDUSD but experiencing a brief retracement. You want to take a total position of 500,000 AUD and don’t have a strong view on the current price action.
You might therefore leave a series of five bids of 100,000. As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level. Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market.
Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders.

Pyramiding into a position means buying more as it goes in your favour
Again let’s imagine we’re bullish AUDUSD and want to take a position of 500,000 AUD.
Here we add 100,000 when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of 100,000 when the trade moves in our favour. We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct.
Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. However, the drawback is obvious: we haven’t had the full amount of risk on from the start of the trend.
You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around.

Risk:reward and win ratios

Be extremely skeptical of people who claim to win on 80% of trades. Most traders will win on roughly 50% of trades and lose on 50% of trades. This is why risk management is so important!
Once you start keeping a trading journal you’ll be able to see how the win/loss ratio looks for you. Until then, assume you’re typical and that every other trade will lose money.
If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses. You can see the effect of this below.

A combination of win % and risk:reward ratio determine if you are profitable
A typical rule of thumb is that a ratio of 1:3 works well for most traders.
That is, if you are prepared to risk 100 pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you 300 pips.
One needn’t be religious about these numbers - 11 pips and 28 pips would be perfectly fine - but they are a guideline.
Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit. Don’t just blindly take your stop distance and do 3x the pips on the other side as your take profit. Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region.

Risk-adjusted returns

Not all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders. Now, both have produced a return of 14% over the year. Not bad!
The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below.
The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility.
Would you rather have the first trading record or the second?
If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose? Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. Both are up 14% at that point in time. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps .
A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance. One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return.
If I can earn 80% of the return of another investor at only 50% of the risk then a rational investor should simply leverage me at 2x and enjoy 160% of the return at the same level of risk.
This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms (EAs) that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return. Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more ...
Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at 1000:1 leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner. At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor.

Sharpe ratio

The Sharpe ratio works like this:
  • It takes the average returns of your strategy;
  • It deducts from these the risk-free rate of return i.e. the rate anyone could have got by investing in US government bonds with very little risk;
  • It then divides this total return by its own volatility - the more smooth the return the higher and better the Sharpe, the more volatile the lower and worse the Sharpe.
For example, say the return last year was 15% with a volatility of 10% and US bonds are trading at 2%. That gives (15-2)/10 or a Sharpe ratio of 1.3. As a rule of thumb a Sharpe ratio of above 0.5 would be considered decent for a discretionary retail trader. Above 1 is excellent.
You don’t really need to know how to calculate Sharpe ratios. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in.

VAR

VAR is another useful measure to help with drawdowns. It stands for Value at Risk. Normally people will use 99% VAR (conservative) or 95% VAR (aggressive). Let’s say you’re long EURUSD and using 95% VAR. The system will look at the historic movement of EURUSD. It might spit out a number of -1.2%.

A 5% VAR of -1.2% tells you you should expect to lose 1.2% on 5% of days, whilst 95% of days should be better than that
This means it is expected that on 5 days out of 100 (hence the 95%) the portfolio will lose 1.2% or more. This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions. Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade.
Sharpe ratios and VAR don’t give you the whole picture, though. Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment.
Investors can calculate risk metrics like VaR and Sharpe ratios (we use them at Oaktree; they’re the best tools we have), but they shouldn’t put too much faith in them. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments.Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital
What he’s saying is don’t misplace your common sense. Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns. Whereas in real life you get “black swans” - events that should supposedly happen only once every thousand years but which actually seem to happen fairly often.
These outlier events are often referred to as “tail risk”. Don’t make the mistake of saying “well, the model said…” - overlay what the model is telling you with your own common sense and good judgment.

Coming up in part III

Available here
Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
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Former investment bank FX trader: News trading and second order thinking part 2/2

Former investment bank FX trader: News trading and second order thinking part 2/2
Thanks for all the upvotes and comments on the previous pieces:
From the first half of the news trading note we learned some ways to estimate what is priced in by the market. We learned that we are trading any gap in market expectations rather than the result itself. A good result when the market expected a fantastic result is disappointing! We also looked at second order thinking. After all that, I hope the reaction of prices to events is starting to make more sense to you.

Before you understand the core concepts of pricing in and second order thinking, price reactions to events can seem mystifying at times
We'll add one thought-provoking quote. Keynes (that rare economist who also managed institutional money) offered this analogy. He compared selecting investments to a beauty contest in which newspaper readers would write in with their votes and win a prize if their votes most closely matched the six most popularly selected women across all readers:
It is not a case of choosing those (faces) which, to the best of one’s judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those which average opinions genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be.
Trading is no different. You are trying to anticipate how other traders will react to news and how that will move prices. Perhaps you disagree with their reaction. Still, if you can anticipate what it will be you would be sensible to act upon it. Don't forget: meanwhile they are also trying to anticipate what you and everyone else will do.

Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The trimming position effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases

Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases

The majority of releases are quantitative. All that means is there’s some number. Like unemployment figures or GDP.
Historic results provide interesting context. We are looking below the Australian unemployment rate which is released monthly. If you plot it out a few years back you can spot a clear trend, which got massively reversed. Knowing this trend gives you additional information when the figure is released. In the same way prices can trend so do economic data.

A great resource that's totally free to use
This makes sense: if for example things are getting steadily better in the economy you’d expect to see unemployment steadily going down.
Knowing the trend and how much noise there is in the data gives you an informational edge over lazy traders.
For example, when we see the spike above 6% on the above you’d instantly know it was crazy and a huge trading opportunity since a) the fluctuations month on month are normally tiny and b) it is a huge reversal of the long-term trend.
Would all the other AUDUSD traders know and react proportionately? If not and yet they still trade, their laziness may be an opportunity for more informed traders to make some money.
Tradingeconomics.com offers really high quality analysis. You can see all the major indicators for each country. Clicking them brings up their history as well as an explanation of what they show.
For example, here’s German Consumer Confidence.

Helpful context
There are also qualitative events. Normally these are speeches by Central Bankers.
There are whole blogs dedicated to closely reading such texts and looking for subtle changes in direction or opinion on the economy. Stuff like how often does the phrase "in a good place" come up when the Chair of the Fed speaks. It is pretty dry stuff. Yet these are leading indicators of how each member may vote to set interest rates. Ed Yardeni is the go-to guy on central banks.

Data surprise index

The other thing you might look at is something investment banks produce for their customers. A data surprise index. I am not sure if these are available in retail land - there's no reason they shouldn't be but the economic calendars online are very basic.
You’ll remember we talked about data not being good or bad of itself but good or bad relative to what was expected. These indices measure this difference.
If results are consistently better than analysts expect then you’ll see a positive number. If they are consistently worse than analysts expect a negative number. You can see they tend to swing from positive to negative.

Mean reversion at its best! Data surprise indices measure how much better or worse data came in vs forecast
There are many theories for this but in general people consider that analysts herd around the consensus. They are scared to be outliers and look ‘wrong’ or ‘stupid’ so they instead place estimates close to the pack of their peers.
When economic conditions change they may therefore be slow to update. When they are wrong consistently - say too bearish - they eventually flip the other way and become too bullish.
These charts can be interesting to give you an idea of how the recent data releases have been versus market expectations. You may try to spot the turning points in macroeconomic data that drive long term currency prices and trends.

Using recent events to predict future reactions

The market reaction function is the most important thing on an economic calendar in many ways. It means: what will happen to the price if the data is better or worse than the market expects?
That seems easy to answer but it is not.
Consider the example of consumer confidence we had earlier.
  • Many times the market will shrug and ignore it.
  • But when the economic recovery is predicated on a strong consumer it may move markets a lot.
Or consider the S&P index of US stocks (Wall Street).
  • If you get good economic data that beats analyst estimates surely it should go up? Well, sometimes that is certainly the case.
  • But good economic data might result in the US Central Bank raising interest rates. Raising interest rates will generally make the stock market go down!
So better than expected data could make the S&P go up (“the economy is great”) or down (“the Fed is more likely to raise rates”). It depends. The market can interpret the same data totally differently at different times.
One clue is to look at what happened to the price of risk assets at the last event.
For example, let’s say we looked at unemployment and it came in a lot worse than forecast last month. What happened to the S&P back then?

2% drop last time on a 'worse than expected' number ... so it it is 'better than expected' best guess is we rally 2% higher
So this tells us that - at least for our most recent event - the S&P moved 2% lower on a far worse than expected number. This gives us some guidance as to what it might do next time and the direction. Bad number = lower S&P. For a huge surprise 2% is the size of move we’d expect.
Again - this is a real limitation of online calendars. They should show next to the historic results (expected/actual) the reaction of various instruments.

Buy the rumour, sell the fact

A final example of an unpredictable reaction relates to the old rule of ‘Buy the rumour, sell the fact.’ This captures the tendency for markets to anticipate events and then reverse when they occur.

Buy the rumour, sell the fact
In short: people take profit and close their positions when what they expected to happen is confirmed.
So we have to decide which driver is most important to the market at any point in time. You obviously cannot ask every participant. The best way to do it is to look at what happened recently. Look at the price action during recent releases and you will get a feel for how much the market moves and in which direction.

Trimming or taking off positions

One thing to note is that events sometimes give smart participants information about positioning. This is because many traders take off or reduce positions ahead of big news events for risk management purposes.
Imagine we see GBPUSD rises in the hour before GDP release. That probably indicates the market is short and has taken off / flattened its positions.

The price action before an event can tell you about speculative positioning
If GDP is merely in line with expectations those same people are likely to add back their positions. They avoided a potential banana skin. This is why sometimes the market moves on an event that seemingly was bang on consensus.
But you have learned something. The speculative market is short and may prove vulnerable to a squeeze.

Two kinds of reversals

Fairly often you’ll see the market move in one direction on a release then turn around and go the other way.
These are known as reversals. Traders will often ‘fade’ a move, meaning bet against it and expect it to reverse.

Logical reversals

Sometimes this happens when the data looks good at first glance but the details don’t support it.
For example, say the headline is very bullish on German manufacturing numbers but then a minute later it becomes clear the company who releases the data has changed methodology or believes the number is driven by a one-off event. Or maybe the headline number is positive but buried in the detail there is a very negative revision to previous numbers.
Fading the initial spike is one way to trade news. Try looking at what the price action is one minute after the event and thirty minutes afterwards on historic releases.

Crazy reversals


Some reversals don't make sense
Sometimes a reversal happens for seemingly no fundamental reason. Say you get clearly positive news that is better than anyone expects. There are no caveats to the positive number. Yet the price briefly spikes up and then falls hard. What on earth?
This is a pure supply and demand thing. Even on bullish news the market cannot sustain a rally. The market is telling you it wants to sell this asset. Try not to get in its way.

Some key releases

As we have already discussed, different releases are important at different times. However, we’ll look at some consistently important ones in this final section.

Interest rates decisions

These can sometimes be unscheduled. However, normally the decisions are announced monthly. The exact process varies for each central bank. Typically there’s a headline decision e.g. maintain 0.75% rate.
You may also see “minutes” of the meeting in which the decision was reached and a vote tally e.g. 7 for maintain, 2 for lower rates. These are always top-tier data releases and have capacity to move the currency a lot.
A hawkish central bank (higher rates) will tend to move a currency higher whilst a dovish central bank (lower rates) will tend to move a currency lower.
A central banker speaking is always a big event

Non farm payrolls

These are released once per month. This is another top-tier release that will move all USD pairs as well as equities.
There are three numbers:
  • The headline number of jobs created (bigger is better)
  • The unemployment rate (smaller is better)
  • Average hourly earnings (depends)
Bear in mind these headline numbers are often off by around 75,000. If a report comes in +/- 25,000 of the forecast, that is probably a non event.
In general a positive response should move the USD higher but check recent price action.
Other countries each have their own unemployment data releases but this is the single most important release.

Surveys

There are various types of surveys: consumer confidence; house price expectations; purchasing managers index etc.
Each one basically asks a group of people if they expect to make more purchases or activity in their area of expertise to rise. There are so many we won’t go into each one here.
A really useful tool is the tradingeconomics.com economic indicators for each country. You can see all the major indicators and an explanation of each plus the historic results.

GDP

Gross Domestic Product is another big release. It is a measure of how much a country’s economy is growing.
In general the market focuses more on ‘advance’ GDP forecasts more than ‘final’ numbers, which are often released at the same time.
This is because the final figures are accurate but by the time they come around the market has already seen all the inputs. The advance figure tends to be less accurate but incorporates new information that the market may not have known before the release.
In general a strong GDP number is good for the domestic currency.

Inflation

Countries tend to release measures of inflation (increase in prices) each month. These releases are important mainly because they may influence the future decisions of the central bank, when setting the interest rate.
See the FX fundamentals section for more details.

Industrial data

Things like factory orders or or inventory levels. These can provide a leading indicator of the strength of the economy.
These numbers can be extremely volatile. This is because a one-off large order can drive the numbers well outside usual levels.
Pay careful attention to previous releases so you have a sense of how noisy each release is and what kind of moves might be expected.

Comments

Often there is really good stuff in the comments/replies. Check out 'squitstoomuch' for some excellent observations on why some news sources are noisy but early (think: Twitter, ZeroHedge). The Softbank story is a good recent example: was in ZeroHedge a day before the FT but the market moved on the FT. Also an interesting comment on mistakes, which definitely happen on breaking news, and can cause massive reversals.

submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

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